Zimbabwe faces a food security crisis as the impacts of an El Nino event, which delayed the onset of rainfall and prolonged dry spells, will have a significant negative impact on food production and disrupt the food supply chain.
According to the available forecasts from the Meteorological Services Department (MSD), the confirmed El Niño episode is expected to be most strongly felt in the southern parts of the country, spanning from west to east.
The climate change phenomenon of El Nino, in which surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, caused changes in global weather patterns, and is expected to hit crop yields during the 2023/24 farming season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states that Matabeleland North, South, Midlands, Masvingo, and Manicaland areas will be hard hit, having also experienced high levels of food insecurity during the 2015/16 El Niño episode, and pockets of Northwest and Northeast regions will be affected.
NOAA confirmed a strong El Niño event occurring between October 2023 and March 2024. This event is expected to have adverse effects on rainfall from October 2023 to March 2024, potentially leading to drought conditions in Zimbabwe.
Adversely this will also take a toll on the economic performance of the country resulting in a projected decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with the World Bank projecting a shrinkage of around 3.5%.
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube also flagged a huge grain deficit, in late Dember 2023, as a threat to food security in rural households, in the backdrop of the annual requirement of 1.8 million tons of maize for human consumption.
The United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has said governments, donors, and humanitarian bodies must prepare for high food assistance needs in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar throughout 2024 to early 2025 as El Nino disrupts agriculture.
Already Zimbabwe’s ranking in the 2023 Global Hunger Index is 107th with a score of 28.0, among the 125 countries for which there is enough data to calculate the 2023 GHI scores. The ranking categorizes Zimbabwe’s level of hunger as serious.
The GHI is a peer-reviewed annual report, jointly published by Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe, designed to comprehensively measure and track hunger at the global, regional, and country levels. The GHI aims to trigger action to reduce hunger around the world.
This action for Zimbabwe should focus on sovereign wealth generation from the vast natural resources endowment states George Nyamaropa, programs manager of a leading research and advocacy organization the Centre for Natural Resources Governance (CNRG).
In advocating for transparency and accountability in the governance of mineral resources in Zimbabwe, CNRG seeks to build resilience and climate change adaptation capacity within communities.
Nyamaropa states that through judicious management of revenue generated from the lucrative mining sector, Zimbabwe’s largest foreign currency earner, socio-economic crises like hunger can be averted.
He says mining revenue can be leveraged to tackle drivers of hunger including the development of climate-proofing technologies and financing agricultural projects and initiatives to enhance food production.
“With the possibilities of climate change-induced extreme weather conditions like the ElNino effect increasing the possibility of hunger and famine it’s important that our government responds strategically.
“Mining revenue can be used to establish and strengthen food security programs and mining companies can engage in community development initiatives in regions affected by hunger. These initiatives can involve providing subsidized or free food to needy populations, especially during times of crisis like the hunger we are currently facing,” he said.
Nyamaropa says the government should fund scientific studies, technological advancements, and the development of drought-resistant crops and high-yielding crop varieties, as part of proactive measures to tackle hunger.
“Revenue can also be channelled towards providing financial support to farmers, improving irrigation systems, promoting sustainable farming practices, and facilitating the adoption of modern technologies and techniques.
“Investing in research and development related to agriculture and food systems can lead to innovative solutions for alleviating hunger. This can involve supporting the establishment of community gardens, promoting sustainable livelihoods, and facilitating income-generating activities,” he said.