By Staff Reporter
Diamonds, once Africa’s most dependable glitter, are losing their shine. There is a brutal market correction, driven not by geology but by technology, that is reshaping the fortunes of producer countries.
Nowhere is the divergence clearer than between Botswana and Angola, two giants of the African diamond trade pursuing markedly different strategies as prices slide and assumptions crumble.
Botswana faces its most severe shock in decades, losing its luminary position of having a model of prudent diamond-led development. In 2023, diamonds accounted for roughly a third of government revenue, but by 2025, that dependence had become a liability.
The country is staring at a budget deficit of 11% of GDP, the largest in sub-Saharan Africa. Debswana, its flagship joint venture with De Beers, is operating at just 60% capacity and has laid off more than 650 workers.
Mineral revenues have collapsed by over 50% year- on-year, falling from an expected 25.2bn pula to just 8.7bn. For a country built on diamond stability, the sudden volatility is politically and fiscally unsettling.
Angola, by contrast, has chosen defiance over retrenchment. Rather than cutting back in the face of weak prices, it has pursued a counter-cyclical strategy, ramping up production with a target of 14.8m carats by 2025. This gamble has paid off, at least statistically.
Angola has overtaken Botswana in diamond value for the first time since Kimberley Process figures were first compiled in 2004. Whether this reflects resilience or recklessness remains an open question, but it signals a willingness to compete aggressively in a shrinking market. It is a sign of agility in a fast-changing business environment.
What has precipitated this is a deeper problem that lies not in African policy choices alone, but in a structural upheaval shaking the entire industry.
Synthetic or lab-grown diamonds, once a curiosity, are now a commercial force. By 2025, they are expected to account for 45% of engagement rings sold in the United States, up from just 6.3% five years earlier.
Their impact on prices has been devastating, to say the least. Synthetic diamond prices have fallen by an astonishing 96% since 2018, dragging down natural diamond prices in their wake.
The economics are unforgiving. Natural diamonds are finite, slow, and costly to extract. Lab-grown stones are industrial products, scalable at will. For producers in China and India, where manufacturing costs are 70–85% lower than the selling prices of natural diamonds, economies of scale are tipped in their favor.
Any meaningful price recovery looks unlikely. Meanwhile, the lab-grown market is booming, worth nearly £30bn in 2025 and projected to more than double by 2032.
For Africa, the implications are stark. Debswana alone has slashed production forecasts by 10m carats.
Across the continent, more than two million livelihoods linked to artisanal and small-scale diamond mining is at risk.
Governments facing shrinking revenues may be tempted to squeeze the sector harder, weakening environmental and social safeguards in the process. Yet the crisis also presents an opening.
As synthetic diamonds proliferate, they expose a truth long ignored: lab-grown stones may be cheaper and cleaner in marketing terms, but they deliver no developmental value to producing countries.
Natural diamonds, by contrast, still carry the potential, too often unrealized, to fund public goods, support communities and anchor local economies.
For civil society, including the Kimberley Process Civil Society Coalition, this is a moment to reframe the debate: away from volume and certification formalities, and towards traceability, social value and accountability.
Botswana’s predicament and Angola’s ambition illustrate two responses to the same shock. Neither offers an easy escape from a market transformed. But together they underline a broader lesson: the future of African diamonds will depend less on how many stones are dug up, and more on whether the sector can justify its relevance in a world where diamonds, quite literally, can be made overnight.